Regional Differences in HIV Prevalence in the light of Prevailing Socio-economic Conditions: A Preliminary Comparison of Northeastern and Southern Africa

Preliminary investigation shows that HIV prevalence in most of the Northeast African countries is lower than the prevalence in their Southern Africa counterparts. This has led some in the Northeast to think that their situation is much better, and they should not be worrying as much. This however is a mistake. Since prevalence levels adjust through changes in new infections (incidence) and death, there is some indication that the latter may outweigh in the Northeast. The paper argues that given the much better economic and social welfare conditions in the South, the infected are likely to live longer than their likes in the Northeast. As a result, the prevalence level in the South is likely to stay higher even if the level of incidence is held equal. The socio-economic factors behind the divergence in prevalence in the two parts of Sub-Sahara Africa are explored using data from the two regions. The paper is exploratory in its intent and scope. Its primary aim is to elicit dialogue around these issues and provoke further research to determine the connections between socio-economic conditions and HIV prevalence and incidence. It sketches out the need for in-depth analyses of the suggested hypotheses. The paper calls for much vigorous efforts in combating the epidemic in the Northeast as well as in the Southern part of the continent. IGAD, SADC, mainstreaming, economic factors, social factors